Draw Your Own Conclusions

Amtrak today, February 1, 2016, released documents (including onboard video) related to the deadly crash of Amtrak 188 in May 2015. These documents are available at the NTSB website. There is no analysis and no conclusions drawn from the documentation.

One of the popular theories as to the cause of the crash is that the train was hit by a rock. Not so farfetched when you consider that the media is/are today reporting that a “mystery object” struck an Amtrak Acela as it passed through Philadelphia on Sunday night, January 31, 2016. This mystery object struck the train with enough force that Amtrak had it stopped for inspection.

Another popular theory is that the engineer was fatigued, got confused, and just didn’t recognize the curve he was entering as requiring the train to slow in advance. A third theory is that he just fell asleep, but there is no proof of that presented, either in his testimony or in any other evidence.

Although I’ve gone out of my way to point out that there are situations that cause accidents that will not be and cannot be prevented by Positive Train Control (PTC), the system mandated by Congress to have been in place by the end of 2015 and now extended to 2018, the crash of Amtrak 188 is not one of them. Here’s why:

The facts released show that the train entered the curve too fast. The momentum of the train caused it to want to go straight and the wheel/rail interaction system that is the fundamental basis for all railroading could not force the train into the curve. Just like taking a curve too fast in an auto, the train started to roll over. Once the rail structure was breached or damaged, the remaining cars on the train had nothing to keep them from just moving straight ahead. Hence, the common phenomenon in rail accidents where primary cars go on their sides but cars further back remain upright. PTC would have caused the train to slow even if the engineer was incapacitated (by a rock) or didn’t know where he was. Or even if he was asleep. In fact, PTC probably would have brought the train to a safe stop under all theories and also prevented any other trains on the line from running into Amtrak 188 once it stopped.

Yes, I still think Congress went about this the wrong way, but Here’s To PTC. I hope the railroads get it up and running safely and correctly as soon as is reasonably possible. That may not satisfy some folks, but it will prevent a lot of carnage.

©2016 – C. A. Turek – mistertrains@gmail.com