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Part 5 of Supply Chains, Railroads and Where Things Go Wrong
by Charles A. Turek
July 12, 2023 -- The first four installments in this series covered the current state of freight railroads in America. This installment begins our observations on the state of passenger railroads. This blog began by covering only passenger rail in 2005, giving us 18 years of experience taking the pulse of the uniquely American problems and promises of railroad passenger transportation.
Before we go any further, I want to take a look at the astounding variety of passenger rail types in America. As late as the 1960s, there were only two types: City or urban transit and "steam" railroads. City transit was comprised of electric rapid transit and electric street railways or streetcars, and it still is, with the exception that street level versions are more often referred to as "light rail." Steam was everything else, and was run by the freight railroads.
In the complex world of today, we have to divide steam passenger, which is no longer operated with steam engines, into a number of different categories. Under the heading of Intercity, we have Amtrak and Northeast Corridor. Under Amtrak we have long distance and state-supported regional. Under Northeast Corridor, Amtrak operates regional trains up and down the heavily populated corridor from Richmond, Virginia, on the south end to Boston, Massachusetts on the north. Within big-city congested areas, several state and city agencies operate their own commuter trains on the same tracks as Amtrak. Under Commuter rail, you have heavy trains operated in the same regions as transit and light rail. Then it gets really messy when an upstart like Bright Line in Florida comes in and wants to actually turn a profit carrying passengers between intrastate city pairs.
Turning a profit carrying passengers is an activity about as rare as turning a profit selling buggy whips, but there you have it. Let me summarize: Amtrak long distance, regional and Northeast. Commuter rail in most medium to large cities. Rapid transit and light rail. Bright Line yet to be proven as a long-term success.
Amtrak long distance.
This is my favorite, because this is a railroad whose success is its own undoing. Amtrak long distance could fill up twice the number of trains it runs today, and probably do it without with longer trains, more amenities and close to profitable. Its critics would have use believe it is a white elephant, a relic of the past, and one that should have all its trains cancelled in favor of operating the Northeast Corridor and state sponsored Regional. Those critics are largely conservatives and live where Amtrak trains make stops less than 25 miles apart.
That long distance trains are running sold out is testimony that the demand is there. As we watch FAA flight control facilities age and crumble before our eyes with their own problem of outdated tech and a short supply of workers, that demand for long distance passenger rail travel is only going to increase. As I write this nearing the 2023 Independence Day holiday, commercial aviation is again all screwed up in the same problems it has had for almost half a decade now. One wonders what the fall holidays will bring.
Meanwhile, Amtrak can't run more or more frequent trains without more equipment, and can't get that equipment while trying to get overseas suppliers to conform to the most stringent crash crush regulations on the planet. What's needed are builder based in the U.S. that can step up and produce hundreds of coaches, bedroom cars, diners and lounges, if not thousands, on home soil with home labor. And Amtrak needs educated pragmatic managers who can oversee production to meet delivery promises.
The pickle for long distance is simply that. Car shortages. Whenever Amtrak gets funded by an intransigent Congress, the money goes first to the Northeast and then to state-subsidized regionals, before long distance gets the dregs. It's simply not enough to get the car supply needed. Its not enough to get the managers needed, and its certainly not enough to get the trained crews that will have to run the new trains.
Amtrak regional and state-supported.
"Chinese builders, European builders, anything but American builders." This mantra is described as a necessity by Amtrak, but is it? And again, the regionals have problems of their own making. The most prominent of these problems are state legislatures. Hence, another mantra. "If we're going to pay for it, we must have our very own trains." No carbon copies of old long distance or Northeast Corridor equipment for these short-sighted entities.
Look back on the last decade and you will see resultant disasters: Illinois and California being unable to get delivery on even a fraction of the railcars they need on account of the new designs, and paying a hefty price for the privilege. Wisconsin scrapping good trains for bad political reasons. Washington making bad decisions on how to operate high-speed Talgo equipment in a low-speed environment. Most regionals still relying on the old Amtrak designs, many going back to Pullman and Budd.
So, the pickle for regional is a legacy of bad decision making in both procurement and operation, backed by state legislatures more fickle than Congress and just as likely, at any give moment, to fund a pogo stick factory as a railcar building facility.
Amtrak Northeast Corridor.
Now there's a railroad! Probably the best transportation network ever to fall into government hands, and government has spend that last five decades letting it fall into disrepair. Why? It's the government, stupid! In all seriousness, Amtrak has never been able to get the funding needed to keep this network in tip-top shape, and possibly never will. Once things start to fall apart . . . well . . . you know how it goes.
The pickle for the the Northeast is bridges, when it isn't track curvature, and when it isn't catenary (electrification) and when it isn't Manhattan tunnels, and it goes on and on. In all fairness, Amtrak has spent millions on upgrading this valuable right of way ever since becoming its outright owner. By some accounts, nearly half a billion dollars on decreasing travel times by just over a minute and a half. A major track, signal and power distribution project between 1976 and 1998 spend just under $3 billion. It could spend another $24 billion in the next decade if granted the funds from the feds.
The pickle is these are just drops in a very big bucket of what must be spent to bring the Northeast Corridor up to the quality needed for the rest of the 21st century, the standards already achieved by many passenger rail networks in Europe and Asia.
City commuter rail.
For the short term, the pickle here is ridership. The vast majority of these systems are run by transit districts or agencies with quasi governmental powers to levy taxes on the residents of the regions served. The majority also had plans in place, just before Pandemic, to grow almost exponentially to handle ever increasing ridership. Being political bodies, they have been loathe to cancel these plans for fear of the unknown. Ridership has dribbled back since Pandemic, but nobody really knows how or when the changed lifestyles of entire city populations will normalize, and whether they ever will. Cutting back on schedules saves short term money, but does nothing for the capital costs related to the idle equipment.
Extracting money from legislatures and the feds is a juggling act made worse by the one-time injection of money into the economy by the current administration in D.C. When that money is spent, nobody knows when or from where more will come. Teetering on recession will not help the outlook for tax collections, increases, or changes in the taxing district's powers.
For the long term, the pickle will be finding a way to cover more of the capital expenses from the farebox and doing it while maintaining existing services.
Rapid transit and light rail.
Electric rapid transit and trolley or tram lines for moving people around cities are as old as some cities themselves. In others, electric traction was cut back and abandoned only to be re-embraced as environmentally friendly and the solution to traffic congestion. Many systems are run by the same agencies that run the commuter trains, the difference being that rapid transit lines and trolley routes are more embedded into the fabric of the city, closer to more homes and businesses, making more stops and providing more flexible routing for the person who wants to get around without an automobile.
Most, if not all, transit agencies are going ahead with upgrades, extensions, and expansions despite of the drops in ridership caused by Pandemic. The transit agencies, however, generally get matching funding from the municipalities where the transit or trolley lines originate. Those cities want control that too many federal dollars won't allow. As a consequence, the only pickle I see for this segment of the passenger rail business is balancing the needs of the served city against the constant pressure to involve the feds in all projects.
This may be a good point to remind the reader that none of the segments of passenger rail mentioned so far escape moderate to heavy threats of regulatory action from federal agencies. These would be, in order of importance, the Surface Transportation Board, the Federal Railroad Administration, the Federal Transit Administration, the National Transportation Safety Board, and others including state and local public utilities boards and commissions. What is a pickle in some areas may not be one in others, as the whole regulatory regime works like a giant morphing jigsaw puzzle. In same parts of the country, pieces fit, in others, they don't.
Brightline
In some ways, Brightline, the Florida passenger-only railroad running intrastate service
and intending to make money doing it, has a happy pickle. Let me explain.
If you were starting a business that literally nobody believed could succeed, and you had met all challenges, raised abundant cash, built out your infrastructure, passed all tests, and begun to grow the business while remaining solvent, you would be in a position unique to business startups, let alone to railroading. This would be a thumbnail description of Brightline. Self-touted as "the only privately owned and operated intercity railroad in the United States," we would add "passenger" to that description.
It is a high speed railroad, and it's only current pickle is how to grow fast enough to meet demand without pissing off those who believe railroads are an archaic form of transportation. Brightline's success means that highway interests will need less money from highway construction in the future. It means that boaters may have to put up with bridges that stay closed for trains while boaters wait. It means that airlines will not be able to overcharge for a sardine-can seat between two city pairs for a trip that takes three times as long.
And a tip of the hat to high-speed rail.
Yes, Brightline is a high-speed railroad, but California thinks it has that in the bag with California High-Speed Rail. In the bag is still where Golden State bullet trains will probably be for the next decade. The pickle is, for a lot of money spent, and a lot of land acquisitioned, and a lot of people pissed off, this project has made surprisingly small strides to becoming operational. From a terminal station once on the verge of structural collapse, to bridges and embankments in the middle of nowhere with no tracks and only imaginary trains, this project has all the earmarks of a money pit perhaps rivaling a Hawaiian volcano. The only thing missing is hot lava spilling out of it. But it's a taxpayer money put, a beast notoriously known to be impossible to kill and harder to appease. The first test train may be as far off as interstellar space travel.
I am Mister Trains. mistertrains@gmail.com -- Text content ©2023 Charles A. Turek
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