Believe it or don’t

I think the famous, late comic genius Steve Allen coined this satiric take on the equally famously titled funny papers strip by Ripley. The phrase, though, is something we should all take to heart when we are reading or hearing about railroad, particularly passenger railroad, projects.

How many times have we heard about a special interest group, agency, or corporate interest working to bring or return passenger service to some town or other, only to lose track of the project and never hear of it again?

When you learn of a new rail project, it seems you are neither right nor wrong if you believe it, or if you don’t believe it.

Some projects that you would think make perfect sense wind up in the trash can of what might have been. Take, for example, Lone Star Rail. Miles of I-35 between San Antonio, TX, and the state capitol are inadequate for the traffic they bear. A commuter rail link makes sense, and yet, last week, for several reasons including inadequate funding methods and repeatedly uncooperative freight railroads, the project effectively swished into that trash can without touching the rim.

Then there are those that sounded so off the wall (if not off the shelf) from the start that they couldn’t possibly come alive. For my example of this, I present New Mexico Rail Runner Express. If my readers search the archives of this blog, you will find my many reasons why this was a bad idea. The brainchild of a Democratic governor with a cooperative legislature behind him, nothing about it made anything other than political sense. As the latter, it was a steppingstone for that governor’s quest for a presidential nomination.

Rail Runner operates today as a gee-whiz link between Santa Fe, another state capitol, and Belen, a sleepy backwater town south of any real development. In between, it serves Los Lunas, Albuquerque, and Bernalillo, as well as both the Isleta and Sandia Pueblos, although inconveniently. It hasn’t bankrupted our poor state, by which it is heavily subsidized, but it has that potential as balloon payments and other obligations come due. We pray that the state keeps it credit rating (for refinancing) and population grows enough to make TOD investments worthwhile along the route.

Today, I heard that a couple hundred million bucks is going to allow for extra trips on Amtrak’s Hiawatha service. We’ll see. Chicago-Milwaukee has needed more and more frequent trains for years. On the other hand, with Wick Moorman now at Amtrak’s helm, many folks are saying anything is possible.

On the freight side, Great Lakes Basin Rail’s proposed expensive idea seems like a no brainer. Bypass Chicago with a brand-new railroad that connects everybody and solve a great deal of the problems arising from that congested city. So, what’s to worry? The big railroads, for one thing, don’t seem to be getting on board. In fact, those that were have bailed. Even with everyone on board, most pundits believe that the last round of mergers creating two transcontinental railroads in the United States will begin before the end of 2020. If that’s so, then Great Lakes’ idea is wrong and the railroads are right, and those of us who believe otherwise will never see it. Single line transcons will obviate the need for transferring in and transiting through congested Chicago.

Back on the passenger side, the Acela trainsets had a lot of promise before introduction, and I suppose that, in many ways, they lived up to their hype. On the other hand, we still don’t have real 165 mph running (Acela’s design speed) anywhere between Washington, DC, and Boston. Now comes Amtrak’s deal with Alstom for new trainsets, better trainsets than Acela, if the preview is any indication. To reach their full potential, lots of money needs to be spent (and continue to be spent) on the Northeast Corridor infrastructure. Again, it’s going to depend on Mr. Moorman and on whether he can wrest that money from Congress and the next administration, whoever and whatever that may be.

Another project, already under way and far more ambitious because it’s privately funded, is Brightline. This is Florida’s, and arguably the country’s, best effort to prove that private and comfortable passenger rail can outperform both commuter air and expanded highways in the close-in, metro-to-metro market. We’ll see.

Throw in an economic downturn (or dip in the endless economic flatness, if you prefer) and many of the currently envisioned projects will wind up either unnecessary and forgotten, or expensive albatrosses around the necks of whatever agency manages to complete them. Welcome a boom in the economy, and experience tells us that we will still see many of these projects turn into massive incentives to boost highway funding.

So whatever you are hearing about the high hopes and ultimate benefits of new railroad projects, my suggestion is still this: Believe it or don’t.

©2016 – C. A. Turek – mistertrains@gmail.com

(Charles A. Turek is a writer and novelist based in Albuquerque, NM. After four decades working in areas of the insurance industry related to transportation, he now writes on all aspects of American railroading. Charles is a political conservative but believes in public funding of passenger rail as a part of the federal government’s constitutionally conservative obligation to provide for defense and public infrastructure so that private enterprise may flourish.)